Data from Maine’s gubernatorial primary elections produced something that instant run-off (IRV) proponents insisted wouldn’t happen anymore; candidates winning with a plurality but not a majority.
After 7 rounds of IRV, Bobby Charles won the Republican gubernatorial primary with 43% of primary voter support. Ben Midgely came in 2nd with 29% and the remaining 28% were deemed “exhausted” and were not included in the final round of vote tabulation.
Exhausted ballots are defined by Maine statute as being 1 of 4 things. Ballots with more than one candidate marked for a single ranking, ballots where the first 2 more more rankings are left blank before choices are marked, ballots that didn’t rank any continuing candidate and ballots where the voter didn’t vote for anyone are all counted as exhausted in the final tally.
The Democrat primary, which fared slightly better, also ended up without a majority winner. After 4 rounds, Hannah Pingree was declared the victor with 50% support. The remaining half was divided between Nirav Shah and exhausted ballots at 39% and 11% respectively.
A win by majority requires a candidate reach a minimum of 50% plus 1. So, while support from half of your primary voters is better than having 43%, it’s still technically a victory by plurality.
Adopting an IRV election process gained traction in Maine after decades of governors being elected with a plurality. Voters on both sides of the aisle supported the move because voters on both sides of the aisle were tired of seeing candidates win without majority support. IRV was sold as the solution. A way to guarantee majority support for our elected governor. A guarantee that was, unfortunately, hollow.
In addition to Maine’s supreme court almost immediately declaring that IRV for state elections was unconstitutional, its mandated use in state primaries has now proven that using IRV does not ensure majority support. The fact of the matter is that Maine citizens were sold an empty promise that IRV would ensure our governors won by majority. Not only does Maine’s constitution not even allow IRV, even if it did, the risk of multiple candidates causing a plurality victory doesn’t go away.
There’s an old expression to the effect that continuing to do the same thing while expecting different results is the definition of crazy. This is the situation Mainers find themselves in. If the desired end result are governors with majority support, then it’s time to end our IRV experiment and try something else.
— TMP
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